AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures Drift Lower Awaiting Export Sales Data

April 17, 2019

Corn futures were down 1/2 to 1 cent per bushel on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of 4/12 up 14,000 barrels per day to 1.016 million bpd. Ethanol stocks dropped 517,000 barrels last week to 22.676 million barrels, the lowest inventory since September. Monthly trade data from Census shows corn exports during February down 4.03% from last year at 3.617 MMT, which was a drop of 22.48% from January. Feb DDG exports totaled 686,005 MT, which was a 5-year low on lower production. Ethanol shipments were reported at 113.82 million gallons. Trade ideas for Thursday’s USDA weekly Export Sales report are running 500-850,000 MT for old crop and 0 to 100,000 MT for new crop.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.58 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.67, down 3/4 cent,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.75, down 1 cent

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans See More Selling On Brazil Estimates

April 17, 2019

Soybean futures were down 7 3/4 to 9 1/4 today, following double digit losses on Tuesday. Meal futures are down another $2.60/ton and May soy oil was 261 points lower. Analysts with Brazilian consultancy Celeres expect the country’s 2018/19 soybean crop to total 115.8 MMT, up 2 MMT from their prior projection. Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report is expected to show 350,000-800,000 MT in old crop soybean bookings for the week of 4/11, with new crop at 0-60,000 MT. Meal sales are seen at 125,000-325,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. Soybean exports throughout February were the 5th largest monthly total on record, 4.577 MMT. That was up 8.65% yr/yr, but down 5.2% from January. Shipments to China were slightly larger than in 2018.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79, down 9 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.92 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/2, down 9 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 1/2, down 8 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $0.00, down 2 3/5,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $0.00, down 13/50

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Posts Modest Bounce From Chart Support

April 17, 2019

Wheat futures were UNCH to 3 3/4 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts on Wednesday. MPLS was also higher by 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents. The 6-10 day outlook shows high odds of warmer than normal temps for most of the US next week, with slightly elevated odds for precipitation. There is still quite a bit of snow cover in the northern Plains from the recent storm. Census trade data, released on Wednesday morning, showed the largest wheat exports for February since 2012/13 at 2.262 MMT. That was a 61.97% jump from 2018 and 12.95% larger than January. The trade range of estimates for old crop wheat export sales in the week of April 11 is 200,000-400,000 MT. Analysts also see 150,000-300,000 MT for new crop bookings. USDA will release that report on Thursday morning.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.47, up 2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mostly Higher With Cutouts Mixed

April 17, 2019

Live cattle futures settled 22 cents lower to $0.67 higher with front month April down 22 cents. Feeder cattle futures were down 60 to up 92 cents, with deferred contracts higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 12 cents on April 16 at $143.58. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday. Choice boxes were up 71 cents at $232.76, with Select boxes $.99 lower at $220.16. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 363,000 head. That would be 3,000 larger than last week and 7,000 head above the same week a year ago. A total of 1,269 head of the 1,578 head offered on Wednesday’s FCE auction were sold at an average price of $127.08. Sales ranged from $127-127.25. Sales of $126 are being reported in TX and KS so far today, with a few $127 bids showing up in NE outside of the FCE.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $126.925, down $0.225,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $122.375, down $0.075,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $119.550, up $0.225,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.325, down $0.350

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.600, down $0.600

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $160.450, up $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Up Triple Digits from December Out

April 17, 2019

Lean Hog futures closed $1.00 lower to $1.20 higher on Wednesday, with nearby June down a buck, but December and later contracts posting triple digit gains. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 27 cents from the previous day @ $79.84 on April 15. Pork values are rising. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 47 cents higher at $87.00 in the PM report. The national base hog carcass value was down 20 cents at an average weighted price of $77.18. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.381 million head through Wednesday, down 45,000 from the previous week and 3,000 below last year.

May 19 Hogs closed at $88.925, down $0.050,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $96.125, down $1.000

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $100.625, down $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher Ahead of USDA Export Sales

April 17, 2019

Cotton futures settled 17 to 40 points higher. Cotton exports in February were tallied at 1.484 million bales according to newly released Census data. That was 21.55% larger than January, which is a typical seasonal rise, but 25.09% lower than Feb 2018. The Cotlook A Index was down 145 points at 86.25 on April 16. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 69.21, 99 points higher than the previous week and effective through Thursday for USDA program purposes. The 18/19 Brazilian cotton crop is expected to be the largest since 14/15 according to Celeres, at 2.5 MMT.

May 19 Cotton closed at 78.11, up 17 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 78.96, up 40 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 77.74, up 38 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com