AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures go into the Weekend on a Down Note

November 15, 2019

Corn futures lost 4 cent to 4 1/2 cents on Friday. The Commitment of Traders Report from this afternoon showed that as of Tuesday, managed money was further net short for corn futures. They strengthened their short position by 5.8% wk/wk. Weekly export sales for the week ending 11/07 were 581,568 MT of corn. The USDA also reported weekly export of 602,235 MT, or 23.71 mbu, for the same week. Corn accumulated shipments are up to 178.78 mbu, but still 61.23% below last year’s pace.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.80 3/4, down 4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, down 4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Bean Futures Make some Upward Movement on Friday

November 15, 2019

Nearby bean futures finished on Friday with gains of 1 to 1 1/2 cents. Soybean meal closed Friday with $4.00/ton gain. Soybean oil lost 35 points on the day. The NOPA Oilseed Crush Report showed 175.397 mbu, which was above trader expectations of ~166.8 mbu. The Commitment of Traders Report showed soybean futures were net long by managed money for the 6th consecutive week.

Managed money was net short for Soybean meal, with bean oil seeing an increase in net long as of 11/12. Weekly soybean export sales were 30.7% lower than last week’s bookings, reported at 1.253 MMT as of 11/07. Exports were down 18.3% wk/wk to 1.274 MMT shipped. Of those weekly shipments, 54.42% were headed for China. The MYTD for all accumulated soybean exports have been updated to 10.732 MMT up 11.6% over last MY year’s pace. Soybean meal export sales were 3.297 MMT, with soy oil seeing 30,560 MT of weekly sales and 12,144 MT of shipments for the week.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.30 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.42 1/4, up 1 cent,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.52 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $307.10, up $4.00,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.43, down $0.35

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

More Drops for Friday Wheat

November 15, 2019

Friday wheat futures finished Friday with losses, MPLS falling as much as 9 cents on the day. CFTC reported that managed money reversed their Chicago wheat position from a 654 contract short to a 391 contract long as of 11/12. Kansas City wheat futures have a net short by managed money spec funds, to the tune of 22,689 contracts. They were more bearish the week before. The USDA updated the weekly export sales for the week ending 11/07, with wheat totaling 238,620 MT. Unshipped sales are 25.9% below the same week last year. The USDA reported 453,591 MT of wheat shipments for the same week, pushing the MY accumulated shipments to 11.219 MMT (26.87% above last year’s pace).

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.02 3/4, down 5 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17, down 5 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.03 3/4, down 9 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Enter Weekend Mixed

November 15, 2019

Live cattle futures closed fairly firm on Friday, with 2 to 5 cent gains, and losses of 2 cents in front months. Feeder cattle futures were down by as much as 37 cents for the soon to expire Nov contract, the other nearbys saw gains of 15 to 22 cents. Spec funds in live cattle futures were again net long as of 11/12. Managed money traders changed sides as short position open interest has shrank for the 8th consecutive week, matching the long position increases. The CFTC reported that managed money was net long for feeder cattle futures. That marks the second consecutive Tuesday with that being the case. Managed money has become less net short or more net long (increasingly bullish) for 10 consecutive weeks, for a total swing of 8,446 contracts. The 11/14 CME Feeder Cattle index was 27 cents lower at $147.12. Friday’s afternoon boxed beef prices were lower, widening the Chc/Sel spread to 26.47. Choice boxes saw a 26 cent decrease, while select boxes had fallen by $1.5 to $214.33. The Fed Cattle Exchange reported no sales on the 1,264 head listed. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter total for the week through Saturday is 657,000 head. That is 6,000 head above last week’s total, and is 9,000 head more yr/yr. The estimated YTD slaughter is 29.114 million head as of 11/16.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.100, up $0.025,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.975, up $0.050,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.075, down $0.025,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.250, down $0.375

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.275, up $0.225

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.225, up $0.150

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hog Futures Mixed on Friday

November 15, 2019

Lean hog futures are down by as much as $1.37, with Dec futures posting a daily gain of 45 cents. Managed money open interest for lean hogs fell evenly on both sides, as the open interest was 3.21% lower, but the net long position shrank by 10 net contracts, to remain firm at 13,248. The 11/13 CME Lean Hog Index was 5 cents lower at $59.50. The Friday pork carcass cutout value was $1.09 higher. The Belly primal showed us it’s volatility, swinging more than $11.52 and gave back more than all of it to finish 5 cents lower on the day. The national average base hog price up 54 cents for Friday, shown at $42.73. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Saturday is 2.749 million head through the week, which is 56,000 head more than last week’s total. The YTD hog slaughter is estimated at 112.762 million head as of 11/16.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $63.200, up $0.450,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $72.000, down $1.375

APR 20 Hogs closed at $78.975, down $1.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Rides Gains into the Weekend

November 15, 2019

Nearby cotton futures finish higher on Friday with gains of 54 to 61 points. The CFTC reported spec funds in cotton futures and options were net short by 14,272 positions, which is 975 less short than the previous release. Cotton weekly export sales were at 345,079 bales for the week ending 11/07, that is a 52.09% increase over the previous week. The USDA reported 126,177 bales shipped for the same week. Accumulated exports are now 2.610 million bales, 15.98% above last year’s pace. The PRC (China) occupied 24.13% of the weekly export sales, and the country was the destination for 12.43% of the shipments for that week. The Seam reported 5,353 bales sold online for 11/14, bringing the weekly accumulated sales to 18,087 bales. The 11/14 Cotlook A Index fell by 90 points to 74.90 cents/lb. Good through 11/21, yesterday’s updated AWP for cotton is 57.06 cents/lb, which was back up 46 points.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.88, up 61 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 66.71, up 63 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 67.88, up 61 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 68.83, up 54 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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