Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Tue Dec 10, 4:07PM CST

Corn futures reacted to the reports as expected, which is to say not at all. The WASDE showed projected ending stocks for the U.S. were unchanged at 1.91 bbu. Likewise, Argentine corn production was steady with November at 50 MMT. Corn production from CONAB was up 50,000 MT mo/mo, at 98.41 MMT, but they are still below USDA’s 101 MMT. World production for corn was 1.108 billion MT. That is up 10.7% from the average since 09/10 but down 1.41% from last year. World corn consumption was 0.08% lower yr/yr listed at 300 MMT.

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, down 2 cents,

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, up 1 cent,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month bean futures closed the report day with 2 1/4 to 3 cent gains. Jan Futures have shown a green candle for the 6th straight day. Soybean meal futures gained 10 cents per ton, while soybean oil futures were up 18 points. WASDE reported 19/20 carryout was UNCH at 475 mbu. USDA did reduce the expected cash average price for this year to $8.85 from $9.00. As for the world bean numbers, Brazil production was also firm, forecasted again at a record 123 MMT. Soybean production from CONAB was up ~200,000 mo/mo, AT 121.1 MMT. Argentina was UNCH from November’s estimate at 53 MMT. The USDA estimates 2019/20 world bean ending stocks at 96.4 MMT, which is up from last month. China’s National Bureau of Labor Statistics reported soybean production at 18.1 MMT, following a reported 11% uptick in area planted. USDA adopted that increase, and boosted expected Chinese ending stocks by the same 1 MMT. World soybean ending stocks were the lowest since 17/18, pre trade war.

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.14 3/4, up 3 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.28 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.41, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal closed at $296.80, up $0.10

Dec 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.48, up $0.12

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The wheat market was up 1 to 5 cents, with KC HRW the firmest. The WASDE Report showed a decrease of 40 mbu to U.S. wheat carryover. The adjustment came from a decrease to imports vs. November, as well as a 25 mbu increase to wheat exports from the previous estimate. Ending stocks were lower than trader expectations at 974 mbu, which is a 4-year low for ending stocks. Production was the highest since 16/17, exports were the highest since the same time. World ending stocks were 1 MMT higher than the November forecast; at 289.5 MMT. The USDA revised Aussie wheat forecast to 16.1 MMT a 1.1 MMT reduction from the Nov estimate and 1.2 MMT lower than last year. Private estimates yesterday had called for a cut to 14.97 MMT, but the USDA folks weren’t willing to go that low with harvest still underway. GASC (Egypt) purchased 355,000 MT of wheat in an international tender for early February delivery, 60k MT Ukrainian 60k MT Romanian 120k MT French 115k MT Russian. Japan is looking for 171,045 MT of wheat – with 85,8095 MT from U.S and the remainder sourced from Canada and Australia.

Dec 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.35, up 3 cents,

Dec 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/2, unch,

Dec 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.97, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures finished with 12 to 30 cent losses. Dec futures are in deliveries and posted a 27 cent drop after Monday trading. Feeder cattle futures were 50 to 57 cents higher in the font months. The 12/09 CME Feeder Cattle index was $143.35 after a 2 cent bump. Afternoon boxed beef prices are lower tightening the spread to 16.14. Choice boxes were $2.15 lower this morning at $221. 94. Select boxes dropped by $1.14 to $205.35. Tomorrow’s online Fed Cattle Exchange will offer 1068 head, with 600 head from Nebraska, 253 head from KS and TX offering 215 head. The USDSA reported light cash sales activity in KS, hovering in the $118- $119 range. The USDA estimated Tuesday cattle slaughter under federal inspection to be 122,000 head; which put the week to date estimated slaughter at 243,000.

Dec 19 Cattle closed at $119.900, down $0.275,

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $124.625, down $0.125,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $125.100, down $0.300,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.025, up $0.500

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.850, up $0.575

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.725, up $0.575

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures closed with gains of $1.12 to $1.25. The last trading day is Friday for December hogs, which were 50 cents higher on the day. The 12/06 CME Lean Hog Index was at $58.12, after a 35-cent fall. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was higher, having gained $1.14 on the strength of the primal cuts. Afternoon bellies showed its volatile nature again, as it was 1.06 lower since being $8.42 higher in the morning; all other primals remained higher. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/10 was another 62 cents higher to $47.68. USMCA has been revised in Washington, and with the expected approval in the House next week, is awaiting ratification before the trade agreement originally negotiated in the fall of 2018 will be signed into law; Mexico had already ratified the original agreement and has been abiding by its original terms since June 20th. Tuesday added 494,000 head to the USDA estimated hog slaughter, pushing the weekly total to 985,000 head.

Dec 19 Hogs closed at $60.500, up $0.500,

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $67.825, up $1.125

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $74.200, up $1.225

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures posted gains ranging from 0 to 56 points in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. US average cotton yield was lowered by 3% to 761 lbs/acre by USDA. The new lower yield pushed production for the 19/20 crop to 19.48 million bales. Cotton is still 1.914 million bales above the 2018 production. The USDA released the December cotton ginning’s report this morning. The report showed up to the month of December, cotton ginning’s are at 12.930 MRB. That is a 9-year high for that date, with the record for the accumulated ginning’s going back to 05/06 MY. The number grew 3.617 MRB through the latter half of Nov. The Seam reported online cotton sales 5,327 for Monday, last Monday there were 7,655 bales. The Cotlook A Index was back above the 75 mark after a triple digit move on 12/09; the index was up 1.45 to 75.35. The weekly AWP was 55.97 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 65.94, up 56 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 66.92, up 52 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 67.64, up 47 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 67.42, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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