Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed Dec 11, 12:18PM CST

Corn futures are down from 3 3/4 to 5 cents this morning. There were 79 deliveries against Dec corn overnight, with the ADM house account a stopper for 57 of them. The weekly update from the EIA showed ethanol production was 12,000 barrels per day higher than last week, with the report showing 1.072 bpd. Stocks were again higher by 1.176 bpd. That’s the second consecutive week for increased stocks. The WASDE report left projected US ending stocks unchanged at 1.91 bbu. Likewise, Argentine corn production was steady with November at 50 MMT. Corn production from CONAB was up 50,000 MT mo/mo, at 98.41 MMT, but they are still below USDA’s 101 MMT for Brazil. World corn production was estimated at 1.108 billion MT. World corn consumption lower at 300 MMT. The world corn stocks to use ratio is 26.42%; the average from 09/10 was 23.767% with help from the 2012 drought.

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.59 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 Corn is at $3.72, down 5 cents,

May 20 Corn is at $3.78 3/4, down 4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.84 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month bean futures start off the Wednesday session with drops of as much as a nickel. Soybean meal futures are down by $2.50/ton, while soybean oil futures are lower by 27 points at midday. Bunge dumped 500 contracts into delivery against December meal overnight, with various non-commercial stoppers. China purchased 585,000 MT of soybeans for 19/20 MY delivery, which was reported as the largest single booking since April. Another private export sale was reported this morning, the second one of 140,000 MT of soybeans was for unknown destinations also for 19/20 MY delivery. WASDE left US 2019/20 soybean carryout at 475 mbu. USDA did reduce the expected cash average price for this year to $8.85 from $9.00. As for the world bean numbers, Brazil production was also firm, forecasted again at a record 123 MMT. The USDA estimates 2019/20 world bean ending stocks at 96.4 MMT, which is up from last month following a hike in projected Chinese soybean production to 18.1 MMT. China indicated an 11% uptick in area planted vs. 2018. USDA boosted expected Chinese ending stocks by the same 1 MMT.

Jan 20 Soybeans are at $8.97, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $9.10 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.24, down 5 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.37, down 5 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal is at $294.40, down $2.50

Dec 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.20, down $0.27

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures trading mostly lower at Wednesday’s midday. Chicago SRW futures are down by the most posting losses of 5 1/2 to 6 3/4 cents in the nearby contracts. KC wheat futures are the most firm with front month losses of as much as 1 3/4 cents. MGE wheat is mixed this morning, with nearbys down by as much as 1 1/2 to a 1 cent gain. The WASDE Report showed a decrease of 40 mbu to U.S. wheat carryover. The adjustment came from a 15 mbu decrease in imports and a 25 mbu increase to wheat exports from the previous estimate. Ending stocks were lower than trader expectations at 974 mbu, which would be a 4-year low for ending stocks. The U.S. Stocks to Use ratio tightened to 45.7%. The 5 previous years’ average stocks to use ratio is 49.8%. World ending stocks were 1 MMT higher than the November forecast; at 289.5 MMT. The French monthly estimate for 19/20 MY exports from France Agrimer was updated 200,000 MT higher, to 12.2 MMT. Syria has issued an international tender to buy 200,000 MT of milling wheat. Taiwan is also tendering, the country wants 104,600 MT of U.S. wheat.

Dec 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.28, down 6 3/4 cents,

Dec 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.16, unch,

Dec 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.01 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are posting midday gains of as much as 67 cents, they finished the Tuesday session with 12 to 30 cent losses. Feeder cattle futures have continued yesterday’s upward move with midday gains of $0.75 to $1.05 in the front months. The 12/09 CME Feeder Cattle index was $143.35 after a 2 cent bump. Wholesale boxed beef prices are again lower, tightening the Choice/Select spread to $15.53. It will typically narrow to single digits by February. Choice boxes were $1.77 lower this morning at $219.72. Select boxes dropped by $1.16 to $204.19. The online Fed Cattle Exchange saw no sales this morning, the packers passed on asks of $119 - $119.50. Cash sales for this week are back down from the $120 range of last week, with reports of $118 - $119 through the first half of the week. The USDA estimated Tuesday cattle slaughter under federal inspection to be 122,000 head; which put the week to date estimated slaughter at 243,000.

Dec 19 Cattle are at $120.350, up $0.475,

Feb 20 Cattle are at $125.100, up $0.525,

Apr 20 Cattle are at $125.725, up $0.675,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.575, up $0.925

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle are at $143.575, up $1.050

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $145.225, up $0.750

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are lower after Tuesday gains of $1.12 to $1.25. The last trading day is Friday for December hogs, which were 20 cents higher at midday. The 12/09 CME Lean Hog Index was at $58.47, after a 35-cent recovery. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was 51 cents higher, with the primal cuts showing mixed movements. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/11 was another 12 cents lower at $47.46. Tuesday added 494,000 head to the USDA estimated hog slaughter, pushing the weekly total to 985,000 head, following a 5,000 head reduction from Monday’s estimate.

Dec 19 Hogs are at $60.675, up $0.200,

Feb 20 Hogs are at $67.650, down $0.325

Apr 20 Hogs are at $74.150, down $0.050

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are in the black for Wednesday’s midday, with gains of 0 to 34 points. The US dollar index is higher this morning. US average cotton yield was lowered by 3% to 761 lbs/acre by USDA. The new lower yield pushed production for the 19/20 crop to 19.48 million bales. The cotton crop is still 1.914 million bales above the 2018 production. Ending stocks were trimmed to 5.5 million bales. The USDA Cotton Ginnings report showed cumulative ginnings have reached 12.930 MRB. The number grew 3.617 MRB through the latter half of Nov. The Seam reported online cotton sales of 5,327 bales for Monday, last Monday there were 7,655 bales. The Cotlook A Index fell 50 points on 12/10 to 74.85. The weekly AWP is 55.97 cents/lb through tomorrow afternoon.

Mar 20 Cotton is at 66.15, up 22 points,

May 20 Cotton is at 67.2, up 30 points

Jul 20 Cotton is at 67.93, up 34 points

Oct 20 Cotton is at 67.91, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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