Trotter, Inc. -

Beans Higher at Midday

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Wed Aug 12, 4:55PM UTC

Through midday, the soy complex is mostly higher. Soybeans are gaining 1 3/4 to 3 cents in the front month futures. Meal futures are down 40 to 60 cents/ton. Bean oil futures are up 54 to 68 points so far. This morning, USDA announced the sale of 258,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. Another sale of 120k MT of new crop beans was reported to unknown destinations. The first data driven yield forecast from USDA is 53.3 bpa, up 3.5 bpa from the July trend yield forecast. The average of pre report estimates was 51.2 bpa. Soybean production was increased 290 mbu to 4.425 bbu. That was above estimates, reflecting the larger than expected yield increase. Carryin is 615 mbu, which is down 5 mbu from July on a higher crush estimate. New crop ending stocks are forecasted at 610 mbu. USDA foresees the 2020/21 average cash bean price at $8.35/bu – down by 15 cents from last month. NMY’s meal cash price is $290/ton, and oil was upped a penny to 30 cents/lb. Given USDA’s new crop crush forecast of 2180 mbu (up by 20), the 51.425 million tons of meal produced has implied yield at 47.18 lbs/bu. Implied yield for soy oil is 11.59 lbs/bu, with USDA estimated 25.27 billion lbs to be produced NMY.

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.78, unch,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.71 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.74, up 1/2 cent,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $8.79 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 20 Soybean Meal is at $283.50, down $0.60

Sep 20 Soybean Oil is at $31.16, up $0.54

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